By Gary W. Gallagher, University of Virginia
At first glance, the United States seemed to have overwhelming advantages over its opponent, leaving the Confederacy with no chance to win. The northern advantages were so striking that it was simply a matter of time before the United States power asserted itself. But, was it really the case?
The Northern Advantage of Population
The population of the United States gave it a big edge. There were 31 million Americans in 1860, give or take a few, 22 million of whom lived in the states that remained in the Union. There were 5.5 million white Southerners and 3.5 million black Southerners in 1860. Most of the black Southerners were slaves.
Taking all elements into account, such as whites loyal to the Union who remained in the Confederacy, and whites in the border states that remained in the Union who fought for the Confederacy, we can come up with a northern advantage of about five-to-two in manpower—two-and-a-half-times the manpower of the Confederacy.
North Was Economically Stronger
In terms of economic strength, the United States also had an enormous edge. While there were 110,000 manufacturing establishments in the United States; the Confederacy had mere 18,000 manufacturing establishments.
Furthermore, the North had 22,000 miles of railroad; while the South had only 9,000; with the Northern railroads being more modern. Also, twice as many draught animals in the United States, and horses and mules are what pulled armies and allowed the cavalry to operate.
Military Strength of the US
The United States also began with a professional army and navy, although they were very small—about 15,000 men in the army, and several dozen vessels in the navy. There was no regular army or navy for the Confederacy at the outset.
In terms of presidential leadership, the United States would have something of an advantage, although not nearly as large a one as is often assumed. Abraham Lincoln proved to be an excellent war leader; Jefferson Davis proved to be very good in many ways, but not quite as good as Lincoln.
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Was Confederacy Strong at All?
Much like the North, the Confederacy had advantages as well.
A tie was as good as a win for the Confederacy. It didn’t have to invade the United States—all it had to do was hold up northern advances. If the United States decided not to invade at all, the Confederacy would win by default.
Confederates would also be fighting on home ground, which was another big advantage. They would know the terrain better, and fight among a largely friendly population. Thirdly, geography largely favored the Confederacy. It was huge–with 3,500 miles of coastline and no good transportation infrastructure in the interior. All of those would be daunting challenges for the United States military forces overcoming the area and the lack of good transportation infrastructure, and trying to seal off that huge coastline.
Were They Equal at Any Fronts?
In other areas, the two sides were about equal. Most important of these is in the area of military leadership. Their military leaders were essentially the same in terms of quality.
There was a pair of really brilliant generals in the Confederacy: Robert E. Lee and “Stonewall” Jackson—Thomas Jonathan Jackson—only Lee was an army commander of those two. On the United States side, Ulysses S. Grant and William “Tecumseh” Sherman proved to be superb army commanders.
Both sides also had a number of thoroughly competent officers, as well as a fairly large number of incompetent officers, but overall, the resources of command were pretty much balanced out.
It’s important to keep in mind that the officers on both sides who held high command were almost all trained at West Point, took the same classes from the same professors who read the same books, had fought in Mexico under Winfield Scott, and, under Zachary Taylor, learned the same lessons there, so they quite naturally applied the same ideas on the battlefield.
European Intervention
There was one wild card, one variable that no one could be certain about at the outset of the war, and that was: What would Europe do, especially, what would Great Britain and France do? Would one or the other of those great European powers decide to intervene in this American war, as France had intervened during the American Revolution?
People on both sides were well aware that French aid had proved critical during the American war for independence. They were both also aware of the fact that in the American war for independence the seemingly much weaker power, the colonies, had triumphed against the powerful British Empire. Thus, there was a precedent there as well for a state in the situation of the Confederacy proving to be successful against a much more powerful opponent, at least on paper.
Battle Between the Equals?
Overall, then, the United States entered the war with considerable advantages, but so also did the Confederacy. It was by no means a hopeless attempt to establish a nation on the part of the Confederates.
Ultimately, it would come down to a question of which side possessed the greater will to win. Which population would stick to it the longest? These were democracies at war, and what the people wanted, believed, and supported would be crucial as this war would unfold.
Common Questions about the Union and Confederacy
The United States began with a professional army and navy, although they were very small. On the other hand, there was no regular army or navy for the Confederacy at the outset.
The geography largely favored the Confederacy. It was huge–with 3,500 miles of coastline and no good transportation infrastructure in the interior.
There was a pair of really brilliant generals in the Confederacy, Robert E. Lee and “Stonewall” Jackson—Thomas Jonathan Jackson. On the United States side, Ulysses S. Grant and William “Tecumseh” Sherman proved to be superb army commanders.
